Netherlands tax hike misses targets, Ireland’s licensing reset leaves most online casino traffic outside the system

July 2026’s regulatory picture in Europe was less about grand strategy and more about a familiar accounting problem: governments raise the cost of operating legally, and then discover the numbers do not behave. In the Netherlands, the new gambling tax brought in far less than expected. In Ireland, the new licensing regime is live, but most online casino activity is still outside it.

1. On Right to the Source from iGaming Business, Robin Harrison and Ed Birkin reviewed the early effects of the Netherlands’ gambling tax increase and found that the budget impact was much smaller than the Ministry of Finance had forecast.
2. The Dutch Ministry of Finance had expected roughly €108 млн in extra tax revenue in 2025 and €216 млн in 2026. The figures discussed on the show were far below that: about €2 млн in 2025 and around €57 млн expected in 2026 instead of the planned €216 млн.
3. The tax rise was introduced alongside deposit limits, and the combination appears to have hit licensed operators’ financial results. The hosts said the mix of higher tax and additional restrictions also accelerated player migration to unlicensed sites. The same pressure was visible on the land-based side: visits to gaming halls fell by about 11%, and some operators have already announced closures of individual venues.
4. They also referenced financial reporting covering about 85% of the licensed Dutch online market, which showed clear differences between operators in player value and the impact of deposit limits. Unibet was described as one of the most affected operators, while Nederlandse Loterij moved to first place by market size thanks to a more resilient audience. Their conclusion was blunt enough: the tax increase did not meet its stated goals, neither on budget revenue nor on keeping activity inside the regulated market.
5. The same episode also covered prediction markets during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. France drew the biggest volume in winner markets, followed by Spain and Portugal. On loser markets, the biggest volume surprisingly landed on the Democratic Republic of the Congo, then the United States and Scotland. The biggest user losses came on matches that ended in a draw, which the hosts said reinforces a simple point: draws are often better business for traditional bookmakers than for participants in prediction markets.

For PSPs and acquirers serving high-risk verticals, the Dutch case is the practical warning sign here. Higher tax and tighter deposit rules did not just change margin math; they also changed channel mix, with more volume drifting toward unlicensed venues. Ireland is the other half of the same story: a new licensing framework exists, but around 90% of online sports bets already sit with licensed operators, while most online casino activity was still outside the new system at the time of discussion.