Brazil’s Abrupt Online Gambling Ban Could Put BRL73 Billion in Tax Revenue at Risk

A new study by LCA Consultores says President Lula da Silva’s provisional ban on online gambling could cost Brazil up to BRL73 billion in tax contributions over the next four years. For PSPs, acquirers, and banking partners in high-risk, the immediate issue is not just policy uncertainty — it is what happens when a regulated flow gets pushed toward unregulated sites overnight.

1. The consultancy estimates the measure could put about $14.7 billion in tax revenue at risk, alongside 15,500 direct and indirect jobs. Of those, 10,000 are direct jobs tied to the online gambling industry and 5,500 are indirect jobs linked to the sector.
2. LCA Consultores says the direct jobs alone accounted for about BRL 460 million a year in salaries, or around $92 million. That is the sort of number that tends to show up quickly in any discussion of how much economic activity a ban is actually removing, not just how much political noise it creates.
3. The study focuses on Provisional Measure No. 1394 and says it could hit both the industry and the wider economy, even though the sector was launched with Lula’s help when he took office in 2023. In other words, the same market that was brought into the light is now being pushed back into uncertainty.
4. LCA Consultores also warns that most active players in the regulated market are preparing to move to unregulated gambling websites. For operators and payment providers, that is the familiar problem: less oversight, fewer responsible gambling controls, and a much messier payment environment.
5. There may be more claims on the way. Sports betting and online casino companies could seek compensation for remaining license fees, with the study putting that figure at BRL 2.55 billion, or $512 million. Separately, gambling companies are said to have put more than BRL $1.1 billion, or $221 million, into sponsoring Brazil Serie A’s football league in 2025 alone.

The political backdrop is not subtle. Lula was contesting reelection against Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, and the first round ended with Lula trailing by 2%. The second round was due on October 25, 2026. The market consequence for high-risk payment firms is straightforward: when a major regulated vertical is abruptly constrained, volumes do not disappear neatly; they tend to migrate, fragment, and become harder to underwrite.