Brazil’s bet ban did not translate into social media gains for Lula, AP Exata study says

A social media study from AP Exata suggests that banning sports betting in Brazil did not automatically turn into political credit for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. For high-risk operators, the point is simple: public support for tighter gambling rules is not the same thing as support for the government that signs them.

1. AP Exata monitored 180,000 mentions on X and Instagram related to the provisional measure that banned bets in Brazil, using posts published on September 25 and 26. The analysis was reported by CNN Brasil and published on Sunday, September 28.
2. Among the posts tracked, 68.2% did not mention Lula at all. Of the remaining mentions, 18.6% praised the president, gave him credit, or defended him, while 6.2% supported the ban but added reservations about his role.
3. Criticism of Lula or of the timing of the provisional measure accounted for 7% of the posts. According to the study, that criticism centered on two arguments: the government’s earlier decision to regulate the betting sector and the proximity of the elections.
4. Sergio Denicoli, CEO of AP Exata, told CNN Brasil: “Basically, people are against bets, but that does not mean Lula benefits from having banned them. Many people see it as electoral opportunism, and many criticize it by saying that the PT itself regulated bets.”
5. The AP Exata analysis says the government’s sequence — first regulating and then banning the sector — helped fuel skepticism on social media. The provisional measure was published days before the monitored period, which explains why reactions clustered on September 25 and 26. The study did not say how perceptions might change as the election gets closer.