July 2026: prediction markets hit $50bn in World Cup trading and Gibraltar introduced the first dedicated framework

July 2026 gave prediction markets two things they had not had before: scale and a regulator willing to write them their own rulebook. The World Cup pushed sector trading volume above $50bn, while Gibraltar became the first jurisdiction to introduce a dedicated regulatory framework under the new Gambling Act 2025.

1. According to Reuters, Kalshi alone recorded $27bn in trading volume and roughly 3 million users during the World Cup, which was double the company’s original forecast. In other words, this was not a niche side show; it was enough activity to start looking uncomfortably familiar to the biggest names in sports betting.
2. CoinDesk reported that three leading players — Polymarket, Kalshi, and Robinhood’s new joint venture Rothera — topped $50bn in trading volume during the tournament month. Polymarket’s final alone saw $4bn in positions traded, while Rothera, barely a month old, processed $2bn in its first month.
3. The audience story matters as much as the volume. The growth in user base suggests that more consumers are treating prediction markets as a dynamic, interactive and transparent alternative to fixed-odds betting, with the appeal strongest among a digitally native crowd that wants to react to events in real time.
4. For PSPs and acquiring teams, the competitive point is straightforward: prediction markets are no longer behaving like a fringe experiment. During the FIFA World Cup, activity on Polymarket and Kalshi rose to levels once associated only with the world’s largest sportsbooks, which means payment flows, risk appetite, and merchant classification questions are now very much on the table.
5. In mid-July, Gibraltar unveiled the world’s first dedicated regulatory framework for prediction markets, creating a standalone licence category under the Gambling Act 2025. Instead of pushing the sector into either gambling or financial regulation, the regime sets out licensing, compliance, and consumer protection standards for a product category that regulators have now decided to name directly.

For high-risk payment providers, the takeaway is practical: prediction markets are starting to look like a distinct merchant vertical, not a temporary workaround inside sports betting or financial speculation. Gibraltar’s move gives operators and PSPs a reference point for licensing and compliance, even if other jurisdictions have not yet followed.