Palver poll: 1% of Brazilian voters say Lula’s online betting ban could change their 2026 presidential vote

Palver’s latest survey says Brazil’s ban on online sports betting is broadly popular, but it barely moves the presidential vote. For PSPs, acquirers, and banks watching high-risk flows in Brazil, the important bit is simple: policy can hit the sector hard without necessarily becoming an election issue.

1. Published by Estadão, the survey found that 65% of respondents support ending online bets, while 18% oppose the measure. Another 6% did not know how to answer, and 11% said they were not aware of the proposal.
2. On the electoral question, 52% of voters said the ban does not affect their vote, while 34% said it reinforces the choice they had already made. Only 1% said the measure could make them change their vote. Another 1% did not know how to answer, and 11% said they did not know the proposal.
3. The 1% figure repeats among voters for Flávio Bolsonaro and for Renan Santos. Among voters for the other presidential candidates, that share rises to 12%. Among those who identify as Jair Bolsonaro voters, 61% say the ban does not interfere with their choice, while 20% say it reinforces the vote they had already decided on.
4. In the prompted first-round vote question, Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are tied at 44% each. In a second-round scenario, Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 47% against Lula’s 45%, both within the poll’s margin of error.
5. Renan Santos is at about 8% in voting intention, while the other candidates do not exceed 1% each. The poll was conducted between 24 and 27 September 2026 with 5,000 participants recruited through social media. It was an online survey using a single link generated at the moment of the click on the ad, registered with the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral as BR-02990/2026. Margin of error: 2.4 percentage points, with 95% confidence. Palver was founded in 2022.

The timing matters for payment companies because Lula announced the ban nine days before the first round of the presidential election, in a closely contested race. On paper, the betting measure lands as a regulatory shock for the sector; in practice, this poll suggests it is not the kind of issue that swings ballots.