Brazil’s Finance Ministry said it had no impact study on banning fixed-odds betting the day before MP 1,394/2026

Brazil’s Ministry of Finance has officially said it had no study, technical note, opinion, or estimate on the impact of banning fixed-odds betting in the country. That matters because the measure that followed, MP nº 1.394/2026, goes straight at the regulated betting market, including sports betting, online games, and advertising.

1. The ministry’s answer came through a Lei de Acesso à Informação (LAI) request filed on 24 September at 17:33. The following afternoon, President Lula signed MP nº 1.394/2026 in São Paulo, and it was published in an extra edition of the Diário Oficial da União on Friday night, taking effect immediately.
2. Under the MP, the exploration, offering, intermediation, and advertising of fixed-odds betting are prohibited throughout Brazil, whether in physical or virtual form. The ban covers sports betting and online games, but not other lottery formats authorized by law.
3. That means the measure covers exactly the three scenarios the Fazenda said it had not assessed: a total ban on fixed-odds betting, the end of online games, and the end of advertising. In practice, that is the part PSPs and acquiring teams care about first: what gets banned, what survives, and which revenue streams disappear overnight.
4. The full request, obtained by BNLData, was filed on 20 September under NUP 18800.145984/2026-44 and sent to the Secretaria de Prêmios e Apostas (SPA) and the Secretaria de Política Econômica (SPE). It asked whether any document existed, was being prepared, or had been commissioned on three cases: a total prohibition of fixed-odds betting; a prohibition or restriction of online games, including casinos; and a prohibition or substantial restriction of advertising and sponsorship.
5. The system logged the response as “Informação Inexistente.” The ministry answered in four days, even though the legal deadline was 20 days.

The Ministry of Finance said it found no documents assessing the economic, fiscal, regulatory, or social impact of a total or partial ban, and no estimates for GGR (gross gaming revenue), tax revenue, public revenue from the sector, sport funding, advertising and sponsorship contracts with clubs and competitions, migration to unauthorized operators, consumer protection, public health, or the risks of problem gambling.