PoderData/Aya poll: 43% of Brazilian voters say betting ban helps Lula, 31% say it hurts him

A new PoderData/Aya survey suggests Brazil’s ban on online betting is being read through an election lens as much as a regulatory one. For high-risk operators and PSPs, the immediate point is simple: when a betting clampdown lands in the middle of a campaign, market access and political incentives start moving together.

1. According to the poll released on Saturday (3/10), 43% of Brazilian voters believe the ban on bets helps President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s (PT) campaign, while 31% say it hurts him in the re-election race. The first round of Brazil’s general election takes place this Sunday (4/10).
2. The measure became part of the election debate after Lula signed a provisional measure on 25 September banning online betting in Brazil. The text covers Tigrinho, online casinos, and sports betting platforms. It took effect upon publication, but still needs approval from Congress.
3. On Thursday (2/10), Lula said the Bolsonaro camp “wants the people indebted by bets, I do not.” The political camp he referred to is linked to Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), his main opponent in the race.
4. The numbers split sharply by voting preference. Among the 42% who said they would vote for Lula in the first round, 58% said the betting ban benefits him, 21% said it hurts him, and 21% did not know. Among Flávio Bolsonaro voters, the pattern flips: 43% said the ban hurts Lula, 30% said it helps him, and 28% did not know.
5. Across the full sample, 26% of respondents could not assess the measure’s electoral impact. On the policy itself, 52% support a total ban on betting in the country, 31% oppose it, and 18% did not know.

The survey was conducted from 30 September to 2 October 2026 by phone, using mobile and landline calls. It included 4,000 interviews across 786 municipalities in Brazil’s 27 federal units, with a margin of error of 1.5 percentage points and a 95% confidence interval. It is registered with the TSE under number BR-03519/2026.