DraftKings sees predictions growth ahead, but Q3 miss and lower guidance send shares down 26%

DraftKings CEO Jason Robins is still talking up the company’s predictions business, with more than 1.6 million customers using it year-to-date. Wall Street, meanwhile, looked at the Q3 miss and the reduced outlook, then did what Wall Street does: sold first and asked questions later.

1. On Friday’s quarterly earnings call, Robins said DraftKings remains optimistic on the long-term outlook for predictions, even as the market for sports event contracts keeps expanding. Trading in the asset class surpassed $160 billion in October alone, with potential to exceed $1 trillion annually in the coming years.
2. DraftKings said more than 1.6 million customers have engaged with its predictions offering year-to-date. The company also reported that Monthly Unique Payers rose 13% year-over-year in the third quarter, which is the kind of metric management likes to point at when the rest of the numbers are less cooperative.
3. For the full year, DraftKings now expects an investment ramp of at least $650 million in predictions. The company also guided to 17% revenue growth at the midpoint of its full-year outlook by the end of 2027, with adjusted EBITDA expected to land between $700 million and $1 billion.
4. The near-term damage showed up in the third quarter numbers: DraftKings reported Adjusted EBITDA of -$317 million, versus a loss of $126 million in the same quarter of 2025. After the release, shares fell about 22% in Thursday’s after-hours session and were down 28% from the previous day’s close by the time Friday’s Q3 call ended.
5. As of Noon ET, DraftKings traded at $17.60 a share, down 26% on the day and at fresh 12-month lows. Flutter, the parent company of FanDuel, has also been under pressure: after missing Wall Street expectations for quarterly earnings on 4 November, its stock fell as much as 6% to below $80 a share, and it has dropped more than 60% over the last 12 months.

For high-risk PSPs and acquiring teams, the useful read-through is straightforward: predictions is no longer a side bet. It is pulling capital, management attention, and market valuation across the major sports betting operators, and the reporting cycle is now starting to reflect that shift.