Brazil study says illegal betting share fell to 38%-44% in H1 2026

A new study suggests Brazil’s illegal online betting market is shrinking, but it still captured a large slice of wagering in the first half of 2026. For licensed operators and PSPs, the useful part is simple: enforcement is starting to move volume, but payment methods and domain controls are still doing a lot of the heavy lifting.

1. The study estimated that 38%-44% of online bets were placed with illegal operators in H1 2026, down from 41%-51% in the earlier survey released in June 2025. The figures come from “Sizing and Combating the Illegal Betting Market in Brazil”, prepared by LCA Consultores using data from “Incidence of Illegal Betting in Brazil”.
2. The underlying research was conducted in May 2026 across Brazil by the Locomotiva Institute at the request of the Brazilian Institute for Responsible Gaming (IBJR), with responses from 2,291 gamblers. In the three months before the survey, 53% of respondents said they bet on sites that did not require facial recognition, while 48% used domains ending in something other than .bet.br, which is reserved for licensed entities.
3. Payment behaviour is where the regulated market gets a real read-through. Of the respondents, 37% deposited via credit card and 23% via cryptocurrencies, both of which are not accepted in the regulated market. That makes payment controls and merchant acceptance rules a direct part of Brazil’s enforcement stack, not just a back-office detail.
4. Carlos Lima, executive president of the IBJR, said the latest numbers show that federal measures against illegal platforms are “beginning to produce concrete results” and that the reduction is a sign of the consolidation of the Brazilian regulated market. He also warned that new rules applicable only to authorised operators could create asymmetries that push bettors back toward clandestine platforms.
5. Brazil’s regulated betting framework has been in effect since 1 January 2025. Licensed operators must meet tax obligations, operational standards and bettor-protection requirements. In the first year of the regulated market, betting companies contributed BRL9.95 billion in taxes and legal allocations, paid BRL30 million in concession fees per platform, and, according to the study “Overview of the fixed-odds betting market”, invested approximately BRL7.5 billion in share capital and generated an estimated 15,500 direct and indirect jobs.

For PSPs, the Brazil story is not just about licensing on paper. It is also about whether the payment rails, identity checks and domain restrictions line up closely enough that illegal operators stop looking easier to use than the licensed ones.