American tribes and Kalshi are still at odds over sports-themed event contracts

Kalshi has tried to smooth things over with US tribal entities, but the relationship appears to be getting worse, not better. The dispute matters because tribes are treating Kalshi’s sports-themed event contracts as betting by another name, while Kalshi is leaning on the “regulated by the CFTC” argument to keep operating in states where commercial betting is not allowed.

1. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour reportedly tried to improve ties with tribal entities, but those efforts were met with hostility. The broader fight is over classification: prediction markets say they offer CFTC-regulated financial instruments, while tribal operators and regulators say the products are no different from unregulated gambling.
2. The “regulated by the CFTC” badge is doing the heavy lifting here. It effectively allows prediction markets to offer products in states that do not currently allow commercial betting, which is exactly why tribal authorities argue these products harm their communities.
3. Mansour had also tried to bring Victor Rocha, chair of the Indian Gaming Association (IGA), in as an advisor, but Rocha declined. Speaking to the New York Post, Rocha said the approach felt like an attempt to “reduce him to a token cigar store Indian,” and argued that Kalshi was mainly looking for a tribal ally to split the broader tribal community.
4. After an initial conversation, Mansour and Rocha met again on a video call. Jason Giles, executive director of the IGA, later said he was displeased by Mansour’s attempt to connect with tribal executives by invoking generational trauma; Mansour had spoken about tribes’ past persecution and the hardships he has faced as a Lebanese Christian.
5. Giles also told the New York Post that the call raised immediate red flags. “There was a lot of doublespeak and euphemisms they were using which raised red flags right away. We realized, ‘Oh my gosh, these guys are a huge scam,’” he said. Rocha’s relationship with Mansour then worsened further after an agreement to host a webinar fell through.

For PSPs and acquirers watching the prediction market space, the practical point is simple: tribal opposition here is not just reputational noise. When a product is being described by one side as regulated financial market access and by the other as disguised betting, the regulatory and commercial risk sits right on the payment rail.