Lula Eyes a Bets Crackdown as Flávio Bolsonaro Pushes Vote-Useful Strategy in Brazil’s Final 11 Days

With 11 days left before Brazil’s election, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s campaign is betting that tougher action against bets could lift the government’s approval and, with it, voting intention. At the same time, Flávio Bolsonaro’s camp is trying to convert anti-Lula voters who originally planned to back other right-wing candidates into a single “useful vote” bloc.

1. Lula’s economic team is treating it as settled that he will announce some measure of tightening or banning bets in Brazil before the first round on October 4, although the exact wording is still unclear. Campaign wings are debating between a provisional measure that would end bets in Brazil and a hard bill sent to Congress, even if lawmakers later water it down.
2. The political logic is obvious enough: anti-bets messaging resonates with women, evangelicals, and the family-values lane, none of which is naturally glued to Lula’s campaign. One economic team member told GloboNews, under condition of anonymity, that now is the moment to discuss banning bets only because the sector was regulated and the scale of the problem became visible; the same source also pointed to legal and fiscal consequences as part of the internal debate.
3. Flávio Bolsonaro’s main message in the final stretch is vote útil, or strategic voting. In speeches, he has been asking voters who are against Lula but are thinking of supporting another candidate in the first round to back him instead, while his social media team is signaling that “we can win in the first round” to push supporters to chase votes from other right-wing camps.
4. The polling and narrative fight is getting sharper around the so-called Master scandal. In one question about who was most affected, “Bolsonaro” moved from 15% to 21% in a week, a rise above the two-point margin of error, and overtook the Supreme Federal Court (STF), which was cited by 16% of respondents as the most affected institution.
5. The PT is leaning into that line of attack. Éden Valadares, the party’s communications secretary, posted on X that amid all the names in play, only one presidential candidate — Flávio Bolsonaro — had actually received money from banker Vorcaro and was under investigation for corruption and money laundering. Bolsonaro’s camp, in turn, is expected to intensify its message tying Lula to the STF and to the Master case.