Brazil’s betting ban could cost the federal government up to R$ 120 billion, ANJL consultant warns

The Lula government is set to issue a provisional measure on Friday (25) banning fixed-odds betting in Brazil, and the bill for that decision may not stop at operators. The sector is already talking about lawsuits, licence refunds, and compensation claims tied to the R$ 30 million authorisations it paid for.

1. The measure targets 85 companies that did exactly what Brazil’s government required: paid licence fees, opened headquarters in Brazil, contributed capital, obtained certifications, and started sending the Secretaria de Prêmios e Apostas (SPA/MF) data on every bet and every bettor. At the time of publication, the final text of the MP had not yet been released.
2. Each operator paid R$ 30 million for a five-year authorisation that allows up to three brands. In total, the federal government has collected about R$ 2.5 billion in licence fees since regulation began. The licences were not a symbolic stamp; they were the legal basis to operate through 2029/2030, and the state now wants to terminate them before the term ends.
3. The licence fee was only the entry ticket. To qualify, companies had to show minimum share capital of R$ 30 million, keep a financial reserve of R$ 5 million, establish headquarters and management in Brazil, certify systems and games in accredited labs, connect their platforms to the Sistema de Gestão de Apostas (Sigap), and put in place facial identification, age verification, self-exclusion, and blocking tools for vulnerable bettors.
4. In 2025, the regulated market prevented about 3 million Bolsa Família beneficiaries and 827,000 people renegotiating debts from betting. That matters because it shows how much of the sector’s compliance stack was built to satisfy the Brazilian framework, not to decorate a pitch deck.
5. The Instituto Brasileiro de Jogo Responsável (IBJR) said it will go to court to seek a refund of the licence fees and reimbursement of investment. Its president, Carlos Lima, called the ban a “grave signal of legal uncertainty” for companies that “trusted the rules established by Brazil”. The Associação Nacional de Jogos e Loterias (ANJL) said it does not rule out claims for material and moral damages. ANJL president Plínio Lemos Jorge also noted that the MP will still need congressional approval within 120 days.

For PSPs, acquirers, and banks looking at Brazil, the practical point is simple: this is not just a consumer-policy headline. It is a test case for whether a government can sell five-year betting licences, collect R$ 2.5 billion, require heavy operational compliance, and then unwind the regime by provisional measure without opening the door to claims.