Brazil weighs tighter online betting rules as experts warn a ban would push activity underground

Brazil is moving into a new phase of its regulated betting debate. On 2 September, the Senate’s Science and Technology Committee approved PL 2.470/2026, which tightens advertising and sponsorship limits, adds risk criteria for games, and increases operator obligations — while government officials also discuss even tougher measures, including restrictions on certain betting formats.

1. José Frederico Cimino Manssur, partner at Natal & Manssur Advogados and a specialist in sports betting and online gaming regulation, argues that a ban would not eliminate demand. In his view, it would push part of the player base to illegal platforms outside the reach of rules and supervision.
2. “Revocation would be a seemingly simpler and perhaps more popular solution, but it would harm the sector, jobs and tax revenue, without stopping games in the clandestine market,” Manssur said. For PSPs and operators, that is the usual high-risk trade-off: tighter formal rules can shrink the regulated funnel without removing underlying demand.
3. The committee-approved text would prohibit commercial advertising of betting across practically all media and restrict sports, cultural and social sponsorships. It would still allow institutional communications on the authorized operators’ own channels. Manssur supports stricter consumer-protection rules, especially around advertising.
4. He says the rules should block promises of guaranteed returns, portrayals of betting as an income source, and direct inducement by influencers and commentators. “There is no sure bet or bet that is impossible to lose,” he said, adding that analysts should not use match commentary to push the public toward a specific outcome.
5. The tax angle matters too. From 2027, the sector will be subject to the Imposto Seletivo, with the rate still to be defined. Unlike products currently taxed by IPI, betting operators will face this as an additional levy on top of the transition to IBS and CBS.

Carlos Crosara, a tax-law specialist at PUC-SP, master’s graduate and PhD candidate at USP, and lawyer at Natal & Manssur Advogados, said the government risks moving against the formalization process it started itself. “By making regular operation harder and more expensive, it opens space for illegality, because gambling will not end,” he said. For banks, PSPs and acquirers, the point is blunt: the more expensive and constrained the licensed channel becomes, the more pressure shifts to the gray market.