Lula’s Brazil Win Keeps Online Betting and iGaming in Legal Limbo

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won a fourth term as Brazil’s president, defeating Flavio Bolsonaro with 51.75% of the vote. For operators and PSPs that had moved into Brazil after legalization, the immediate issue is not demand — it is whether Provisional Measure 1,394 survives Congress.

1. Brazil legalized online gaming and betting less than two years ago, and the market quickly drew global attention because it is the seventh most populous country in the world and has a strong sports betting audience. Multiple operators and providers secured licenses and started targeting that demand.
2. In September, Lula signed Provisional Measure 1,394, which imposed an immediate nationwide ban on fixed-odds betting and online gaming. The move pushed some operators to start exiting the market while others waited to see whether the measure would hold.
3. Going into the October 25 presidential election, gaming industry stakeholders were counting on Bolsonaro to beat Lula and reverse the measure. Prediction markets initially pointed to a Bolsonaro win, but the result flipped as votes came in, and Lula ended up with 51.75%.
4. The practical problem for operators is that Provisional Measure 1,394 has not been signed into law yet, but Lula’s win makes it more likely he will defend it in Congress. For the sector, that keeps Brazil in a state of regulatory suspension rather than giving anyone a clean yes or no.
5. The measure also does not provide for refunds of license fees already paid to launch in Brazil. The cost of a license was BRL 30 million, which is the sort of number that turns a policy reversal into a balance-sheet problem, not just a planning headache.

Congress has 60 days to vote on Provisional Measure 1,394, with a possible extension of another 60 days. The outcomes on the table are straightforward enough: keep the ban, overturn it, or keep the ban on iGaming while restoring online betting.

Kambi officials told iGaming Business that if Brazil changes its mind again, it will remain an attractive market and Kambi would probably continue serving it. That is the basic operating reality here: the demand is still there, but the rulebook keeps moving.