Brazil’s election drove $249 million in Polymarket bets, but U.S. politics still dwarfs it

Brazil’s national election generated $249 million in trading volume on Polymarket, a meaningful number for a single country market — but still small next to the platform’s U.S. political books. For high-risk operators, the useful detail is not the headline volume; it is the fact that Brazil has already moved from “local curiosity” to a material market, while regulators have blocked the platform at home.

1. The Brazilian election accounted for $249 million in contracts on Polymarket, or R$ 1.3 billion. By candidate, $62 million was traded on a Flávio Bolsonaro win, while $48.5 million went into Lula contracts.
2. Other names also drew money even though they did not end up as candidates in the race. Tarcísio de Freitas accounted for $15 million, and Michelle Bolsonaro, Eduardo Bolsonaro, and Ratinho Júnior each represented $10 million in volume.
3. The scale gap with U.S. politics is wide. Contracts on who will be the Democratic candidate in the 2028 U.S. election already total $1.3 billion, plus another $721 million on the eventual winner. The most recent New York City mayoral election reached $430 million on the platform.
4. Among markets mentioning Brazil, the presidential election trails only World Cup winner contracts, which reached $4.4 billion. Of that total, $82 million was tied to contracts on the Brazilian national team.
5. Polymarket does not keep the losing stake the way a casino or sportsbook does. The pool is paid out to users who correctly predicted the outcome, and in taxable political markets the platform’s commission can reach 1% of traded volume when the market is priced at 50%. Sacra estimates annual revenue at $1 billion and valuation at $15 billion, although the company is private.

There is also a market around Flávio Bolsonaro’s future in the United States after the Supreme Federal Court (STF) ordered him to surrender his passport. Based on traded contracts, 43% of bettors think Donald Trump will receive him in 2026, and 60% are betting that the U.S. government will grant political asylum to the defeated PL candidate.

In Brazil, Polymarket has been blocked since April, when the federal government ordered 27 platforms to be blocked, including Polymarket and Kalshi, on the grounds that they do not fit Brazilian gambling law. That move came with a resolution from the National Monetary Council banning the offering and trading in Brazil of derivative contracts linked to political, electoral, sports, and entertainment outcomes.