Lula campaign says Brazil’s betting ban hurt his first-round result as influencers backed Flávio Bolsonaro

Members of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s reelection campaign say the ban on bets, announced nine days before the election, had a negative effect on the first round held this Sunday. For payments teams in high-risk verticals, the point is less election drama than policy timing: when online gambling is suddenly targeted, the backlash can spill into voter behavior and platform traffic almost immediately.

1. Campaign staff said monitoring of social media found influencers aimed at Brazil’s C class urging tactical votes for Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) as a response to the betting ban.
2. They also flagged concern that the problem could get worse after Tuesday, when the provisional measure requires the sites to be taken offline. For now, users who still have funds on the platforms can continue playing.
3. The decision to fully ban bets split Lula’s campaign. Only Sidônio Palmeira, head of the Secretaria Comunicação Social (Secom), and first lady Janja da Silva supported a total ban on online betting.
4. Palmeira argued the campaign needed a high-impact move in the final stretch, while Janja said the measure would have strong support among female voters. Other members of Lula’s circle called the ban radical and risky, saying it would upset parts of society such as football clubs.
5. Even with that internal resistance, Lula decided to ban betting in the country. The campaign now believes that choice fed into the first-round outcome rather than helping it.