Gibraltar Moves Toward the First Dedicated Regulatory Framework for Prediction Markets

Gibraltar is preparing to become the first jurisdiction in the world with a regulatory framework built specifically for prediction markets. For PSPs, operators, and compliance teams, the point is obvious: this is one of the first serious attempts to stop treating prediction markets as an awkward fit under gambling or financial-market rules.

1. Gibraltar has already issued the first licenses tied to the segment. ADI Predictstreet received a betting intermediary license, while Wire Markets got preliminary approval to operate. Both platforms will fall under the new prediction regime once the government finishes building the standalone framework.
2. The plan includes a government authority dedicated exclusively to this market, functioning in a role similar to the one the Gambling Commissioner currently plays for Gibraltar’s gambling sector. In other words, this is not being handled as a side note inside an existing regime.
3. Justice, Trade and Industry Minister Nigel Feetham said the government wants to regulate innovation responsibly and provide a clear framework for operators that choose to build in this market under the new regime, provided it is the right structure for their business model.
4. Feetham also said the priority is not labels or category debates, but effective supervision and strong standards for market integrity, transparency, participant protection, and the prevention of financial crime. For payment providers, that combination usually means tighter onboarding, sharper monitoring, and less tolerance for sloppy counterparties.
5. The framework is set to cover market integrity, participant protection, contract approval, anti-money laundering, regulatory compliance, and sanctions for operators that breach the rules. Gibraltar is trying to give a legal structure to an industry that still lacks uniform regulatory standards in most of the world.

The contrast in the region is already visible: in March, Polymarket was blocked across Argentina after a complaint from the City of Buenos Aires Lottery. The authority said the platform was operating without authorization in any jurisdiction in the country, and LOTBA director Ezequiel Domínguez said the initial detection came from the agency’s technical teams, leading to an investigation by the Specialized Prosecutor’s Office for Gambling.