CFTC sends proposed event-contract rules to the White House as prediction markets face fresh court and industry pressure

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission has sent two drafts to the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs that could change how event contracts are treated under swap rules. For high-risk operators, the practical question is whether prediction markets end up expanding into gaming-adjacent territory or getting fenced out of it.

1. On Monday, the CFTC submitted two proposals for White House review on modifying the definition of a “swap” for prediction market purposes. One filing, RIN: 3038-AF82, would broaden the definition to include event contracts. The other is still pending review and asks whether swaps can exclude gaming-style products.
2. If approved, the rule would prohibit Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) from listing contracts on online gaming products such as blackjack and craps. That is the part iCasino operators are watching: on paper it is a swaps-definition tweak, in practice it is a line-drawing exercise over what counts as gaming and what counts as a financial contract.
3. The timing follows another legal setback for the regulator. Last week, the US Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit ruled in favour of Tennessee and reversed a lower court decision. In 2025, Kalshi began offering event contracts in Tennessee, arguing that the products met the standard for swaps. The next steps are not immediately clear.
4. At the Global Gaming Expo this week, state-rights advocates lined up against prediction markets for the second consecutive year. The American Gaming Association says states have lost more than $1 billion in tax revenue from the rise of predictions, while the Indian Gaming Association called prediction markets an existential threat to the future of the US regulated gaming market.
5. On an opening-day panel Monday, AGA President Bill Miller argued that a customary Tuesday night baseball game “does not serve” an economic purpose and is instead sports wagering. He was joined by IGA Chair David Bean and executive director Jason Giles. California Nations Indian Gaming Association Chair James Siva also said the tribes are the only operator in California, while prediction markets have gained a strong following in California and Texas.

Miller said the fight is likely headed to the Supreme Court, and that states have gained momentum from recent lower-court victories. For PSPs, acquirers, and banks looking at this corner of the market, the signal is simple: the legal perimeter around event contracts is still being written, and the outcome matters for both gaming and prediction-market flows.