Brazil’s “Regra do Jogo” podcast debuts as election pressure and ad restrictions hit the betting market

A new podcast, Regra do Jogo, has entered Brazil’s sports betting and online gaming debate with a first episode focused on regulatory, legal, and communications issues. For PSPs and operators, the interesting part is not the format; it’s the timing: less than 30 days before municipal elections, the legal market is dealing with tax pressure, ad constraints, and a fast-growing illegal segment.

1. The show brings together João Mota, a gaming and lottery lawyer and president of the Lottery Games Commission of OAB-RJ, and Gabriel Medeiros, a brand strategist and advertising professional. Marcelo Barros, a communicator with a background in sports betting, co-hosts the program. Their stated goal is to create a meeting point between law and advertising in a sector that, as they put it, moves millions of Brazilians.
2. The debut episode was framed by political pressure ahead of Brazil’s municipal elections. Medeiros said the “political chaos” in the 29 days before the vote is affecting the market and that regulatory unpredictability is now a live concern for senior management at major betting companies. In practice, that means CFOs and CMOs are being pushed to delay planning until after the election.
3. Mota mapped the layers of Brazil’s gaming ecosystem, which are often conflated in public debate. On one side are federally licensed operators, which paid R$ 30 million in license fees plus R$ 5 million in guarantees to operate under Law 14.790, published in 2024 by the Lula government to replace the 2018 framework. On the other side are state lotteries, currently operating in Paraná, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, Paraíba, Maranhão, and Tocantins, along with capitalization products regulated by Susep.
4. He also noted that municipal lotteries, which spread after a 2020 Supreme Federal Court decision, were suspended by an injunction from Minister Castro Nunes Marques in December 2025. That matters because Brazil’s public debate still tends to throw everything into the same bucket, especially during an election year, which makes it easier for legal betting to be used as political ammunition.
5. The sharpest concern in the episode was the gap between tighter rules for the legal market and the continued expansion of the illegal one. Mota said federally licensed operators submitted business plans that included advertising spend as part of the public licensing process, but later restrictions are undermining that setup. He argued that if an operator paid R$ 30 million, filed a business plan as part of the licensing process, and then faced progressive tax increases that have already reached 13% plus potential ad limits, an economic rebalance would be justified.

For high-risk PSPs, the takeaway is straightforward: Brazil is not just a growth market; it is a market where licensing terms, ad policy, and election-cycle politics can move together. If your acquiring or payments exposure depends on gaming volumes in Brazil, the legal and regulatory frame is part of the commercial model, not a side note.