Janja says Brazil’s online betting ban did not deliver votes, as Lula’s campaign absorbs the political cost

Brazil’s ban on online betting has turned into a political liability for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s re-election campaign, according to local reporting. For high-risk operators, the point is simple: when a government treats gambling regulation as campaign strategy, policy can move fast, but the backlash can be even faster.

1. First lady Janja da Silva, described by members of the PT campaign as one of the main backers of the ban, reportedly acknowledged in a virtual meeting with around 60 actors, singers, influencers and communications professionals that the measure did not have the electoral effect the government expected. Participants said she cried while discussing the first-round result, in which Lula finished behind Flávio Bolsonaro (PL).
2. According to the report cited in the source, Janja told the group that the government expected a more positive reaction from voters and that it was painful to realise the measure had not moved public opinion. The discussion was organised by Culture Minister Margareth Menezes.
3. The source says Janja was not a bystander. Campaign figures point to her as one of the main defenders of a total ban on the sector. Months before the provisional measure, she launched the social media campaign “Block no Tigrinho”, and later took the issue to political rallies.
4. At a PT rally in Belém on 28 September, she said the regulation implemented in 2024 “did not work” and blamed political opponents for the market’s origin: “Who allowed bets was Temer and who opened the floodgates was Bolsonaro.”
5. After the first round, PT figures reportedly began assigning part of the political damage to Janja’s influence over Lula’s decision. The source says Lula acted on the assumption that the measure would be popular and expand his vote, but later supporters concluded it hurt his popularity instead.

The same reporting says the policy is now being called a “shot in the foot” by Murilo Hidalgo, director of Paraná Pesquisas. His argument is the one regulators, PSPs and operators know well: if demand does not disappear, it simply migrates to unlicensed sites or offshore hosts, while the state loses tax revenue and direct control and still inherits the political mess.

On Canal UOL’s Pulso Político, presenter Daniela Lima said government allies now admit that banning betting hurt Lula more than it helped him. The source adds that the Planalto has not backed away from the measure, keeping its public-health and debt-reduction rationale even after the election fallout.