Lula’s government is weighing a draft decree to ban online casinos and squeeze out bets in Brazil ahead of the 2026 election

Brazil’s government is preparing a Medida Provisória (MP) to prohibit online casinos and make bets unworkable in the country, with the political side of the Planalto leading the process and the technical team from the gambling regulator left out of the room. For PSPs and acquiring teams, the signal is straightforward: this is not a routine compliance tweak, it is a possible market shutdown pushed through at election speed.

1. The plan is being driven by Sidônio Palmeira, the head of the Presidência’s Secretaria de Comunicação Social (Secom), with the MP expected to be sent to Congress just before the first round of the 2026 elections. The main meetings with betting operators have taken place inside Secom, and the Planalto has not commented publicly.
2. Other parts of the political machine have been involved too: Casa Civil, led by Miriam Belchior; the Secretaria de Relações Institucionais, led by José Guimarães; and the Secretaria-Geral da Presidência, headed by Guilherme Boulos. Earlier, Attorney-General Jorge Messias joined discussions when the government was still considering a direct constitutional challenge to restrict bets, but that route has lost momentum.
3. According to people present at the meetings, the idea behind a hard-line move close to the ballot is to show that Lula is willing to do whatever it takes to protect family finances, even if that means taking on a multibillion-real sector with heavy visibility on TV and in sports. The government camp also sees electoral upside, especially with evangelical voters, where Lula has had trouble beating Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL).
4. Officials from the Secretaria de Prêmios e Apostas (SPA), the Ministry of Finance unit created to regulate and supervise betting companies, have not been actively consulted. Privately, they argue that Brazil’s current framework is adequate and mainly needs to be strengthened; they also warn that a blanket ban could push millions of bettors toward illegal platforms operating outside Brazilian law.
5. Lula has already rejected the idea of treating some platforms as acceptable and others as bad. On the Desce a Letra podcast on Wednesday (16/9), recorded at the Palácio da Alvorada, he said: “Esse negócio de ter bet boa e bet ruim… não! Todas as bets vivem de jogo.” At a September 1 meeting broadcast on government channels, he had already said the government needed to “take a more drastic decision.” The SPA did not attend that meeting; the Ministry of Finance was represented by executive secretary Rogério Ceron.

There is also a fiscal angle here. Finance Minister Dario Durigan supports tighter restrictions, but draws the line at a full ban. In 2025, bets generated about R$ 10 billion in direct taxes, calculated on gross revenue, so any move that wipes out licensed activity would hit both tax receipts and the payment flows tied to the sector.