TRM Labs: Onchain gambling held at $14 billion in Q1 2026 as prediction markets hit $36.6 billion

Onchain gambling did not fade with the broader crypto pullback. According to TRM Labs, it stayed near record levels in Q1 2026, while prediction markets moved ahead for the first time, which matters for PSPs because both categories now sit on similar stablecoin rails but carry different risk profiles.

1. TRM Labs said prediction markets recorded $36.6 billion in volume in Q1 2026, compared with $14 billion for onchain gambling. The crossover followed a year of rapid expansion in both sectors: onchain gambling reached $51 billion in 2025, while prediction markets climbed to $54 billion.
2. Onchain gambling remained elevated even during the 2025-2026 market correction. Quarterly gambling volume hit an all-time high of $15 billion in Q4 2025, then held at $14 billion in Q1 2026, showing that activity in this vertical did not track the broader crypto slump in the usual way.
3. A TRM Labs spokesperson told Cointelegraph that gambling volumes surged during the recent pullback because of the “sticky and expanding activity of a loyal user base.” The same spokesperson said this does not by itself indicate concentration risk, but it does show how consistent user activity can insulate the sector from a market downturn and even drive growth.
4. TRM said gambling platforms and prediction markets are increasingly converging on shared stablecoin infrastructure, but their financial crime risks remain different. Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi operate as peer-to-peer markets for binary outcomes, while gambling platforms such as Stake, WINk and Rollbit work more like casinos, with the platform setting odds and keeping a house edge.
5. The risk split matters operationally. TRM said prediction markets have drawn scrutiny over insider trading, while gambling platforms are more exposed to money laundering risks. For PSPs, that means the control stack should not be copied and pasted across both categories just because the payment rails look similar.

TRM also said more than 2 million personal wallets interacted with gambling platforms between January 2022 and March 2026. It broke those users into five groups: “Dabblers,” “Casual Bettors,” “Event Chasers,” “Daily Grinders,” and “High Rollers.”

The concentration data is the part risk teams will notice first. “High Rollers” averaged $13,558 per bet and $378,000 in lifetime gambling volume, while representing just 6.3% of personal gambling wallets but driving 91.8% of personal wallet gambling volume since 2022. In other words, the tail exists, but the money is still doing most of the work at the top end.