Quaest releases first presidential poll after Brazil’s betting ban on September 28

Quaest will publish a new presidential election survey on Monday, September 28, with data collected after President Lula announced a ban on bets on Friday, September 25. For payment providers and merchants in high-risk verticals, the timing matters because this is one of the first public snapshots of how that policy move may be landing in the market.

1. The poll was commissioned by Globo and O Globo, and g1 is set to publish the numbers in the morning. It is the last Quaest survey before the Globo debate, scheduled for next Thursday, October 1.
2. The fieldwork ran from September 24 to 27 and included 2,004 respondents aged 16 or older. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus, with a 95% confidence level.
3. This is the first Quaest poll after Lula’s announcement on Friday, September 25, banning bets in the country. The survey is meant to capture, at least in part, the effects of that measure.
4. In the previous Quaest poll, Lula had 37% in the first round, Flávio Bolsonaro had 33%, and Augusto Cury had 6%. In a second-round simulation, Flávio Bolsonaro was at 42% and Lula at 41%, which was a technical tie.
5. The poll was registered under number BR-06520/2026. For anyone watching Brazil’s payments and gaming exposure, that registration detail is less interesting than the fact that the sample was taken immediately after the policy change, not weeks later when the headlines have already moved on.