Nine days after banning fixed-odds betting, Lula heads to the polls with no polling boost and behind in prediction markets

A Medida Provisória № 1.394/2026 banning fixed-odds betting in Brazil has not turned into votes for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT). The latest Quaest and Datafolha polls show him flat, while Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) has moved ahead numerically in some readings and Polymarket now gives the senator 63% odds.

1. Lula signed the ban on September 25 and made it the centerpiece of the final week of his campaign. The Planalto’s calculation was straightforward: betting restrictions were popular with women and evangelicals, so the issue could help him close the gap with voters where Flávio Bolsonaro had the edge. The numbers from the eve of the vote say that did not happen.
2. In Quaest’s second-round simulation, Flávio Bolsonaro rose to 44% from 42%, while Lula stayed at 42%. Blank, null and non-voters were unchanged at 13%, and undecideds fell from 3% to 1%. That is still a technical tie, but the senator is back in front numerically. In the first round, Lula moved from 39% to 40% in total votes, while Flávio climbed from 34% to 38%; in valid votes, the count stands at 46% to 45%.
3. Datafolha shows the same basic pattern. Lula is at 47% in the second round, down from 48% on October 1, while Flávio is at 46%, up from 45%. Blank and null votes stayed at 6%, and undecideds moved from 1% to 2%. In both polls, Lula did not gain in the second round after the MP was issued.
4. The pro-ban sentiment is not the problem. A Datafolha survey released on October 1 found 78% of voters in favor of banning online betting, 18% against and 4% with no opinion. Support reached 82% among women and 81% among evangelicals. Even among Flávio Bolsonaro voters, 70% support the ban. In other words: the measure is popular as public policy, but it has not converted into electoral movement.
5. Quaest does not attribute Flávio’s late rise to betting. Felipe Nunes, Quaest’s director, said the movement looks like useful-vote consolidation on the right. He told GloboNews: “It is true that Lula even oscillates one point, but the movement we capture is a movement of useful vote on the right.” The survey found that 60% of Renan Santos (Missão) voters, 43% of Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) voters and 34% of Augusto Cury (Avante) voters would vote for Flávio in a second round against Lula.

For high-risk operators and PSPs, the relevant point is not the election theater; it is that a blanket ban on fixed-odds betting was turned into campaign policy in Brazil, yet even a measure with broad voter support did not translate into a visible electoral payoff. That is a useful read on how fast political support can fail to become commercial or regulatory clarity.