Lula stays silent on betting ban after Brazil’s first-round vote, while pollster calls it a “shot in the foot”

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) has left the betting ban out of his two public appearances since the first-round result, even as his campaign privately reassesses the move. For high-risk PSPs and operators, the point is simple: regulation can become campaign ammunition fast, but the policy itself is still in force.

1. Since Sunday, Lula has not mentioned the prohibition on bets in either of his two public statements. On Sunday (4), he said he had expected to win in the first round, appealed to voters who did not show up, and attacked rival Flávio Bolsonaro (PL). On Monday (5), at the first campaign coordination meeting streamed on social media, he spoke for about 19 minutes about the STF, judicial reform, and the strategy for the second round.
2. The silence marks a shift from the final stretch of the first round. In the last campaign ad, aired on 1 October, the end of bets was one of the main talking points.
3. Inside the PT, the readback is already political. Campaign members believe the prohibition, announced nine days before the election, hurt the president’s performance, and the party leadership blames minister Sidônio Palmeira for convincing Lula to end all online betting.
4. The criticism also came from outside the campaign. On Band Eleições on Monday (5), Paraná Pesquisas director Murilo Hidalgo called the measure a “shot in the foot.” His argument was that Brazilians will keep betting anyway, using clandestine sites or platforms hosted abroad, while the government loses tax revenue and control, creates an unnecessary political problem, and irritates football clubs.
5. For now, the policy is still active. MP nº 1.394/2026 remains in force, and the government continues to defend the measure at the STF. There is still no poll establishing a causal link between the betting ban and the election result.