IBPE challenges Brazil’s MP 1.394/2026 that ends fixed-odds betting in the country

The Brazilian Institute of Politics and Economics (IBPE) is not disputing the end of fixed-odds betting itself. It is disputing the way the government did it: by provisional measure, without a congressional debate, in a move the group says raises contract and legal-certainty risk for regulated gambling and, by extension, other licensed sectors.

1. In a statement released on Friday (2/10), IBPE said it questions Medida Provisória nº 1.394/2026, which ordered the shutdown of fixed-odds betting operations in Brazil. The group said its objection is not to the policy outcome, but to the Executive Branch’s unilateral route.
2. IBPE described fixed-odds betting as a regulated sector operating under grants and authorizations, and said it was effectively extinguished without debate in the Congresso Nacional. For operators and payment providers, that is the part that matters: when a licensed vertical can be switched off by provisional measure, the licensing framework stops looking like a stable risk-control tool and starts looking like a temporary permission slip.
3. The institute argued that measures with consequences for contracts, investments, jobs, and tax revenue should go through broad discussion in the legislature and society. It also said the proximity of the electoral calendar makes it even more necessary to show clear relevance and urgency before using a provisional measure.
4. IBPE’s core legal point is simple: legal certainty depends on stability and predictability. If the state abruptly changes the rules of a sector, the group argues, the risk does not stay inside that sector. Its warning was explicit: “Today it is the betting sector; tomorrow, the same logic could reach any activity subject to state authorization, concession, or regulation.”
5. The broader message is aimed beyond gambling. IBPE said that if investments made under rules set by the government can lose their basis after a sudden policy shift, every business decision starts carrying that sovereign-risk discount. The group rejected the idea that family protection, public health, and predictable investment are mutually exclusive, and said a country that wants capital, jobs, and growth must respect contracts, institutions, and its own rules.

What remains open is the MP’s path through Congress. Provisional measures take effect immediately, but they must be converted into law by the legislature within 120 days, which is the window IBPE wants for the debate it says should have happened before the shutdown decision was made.