Brazil’s illegal betting share fell in H1 2026, with clandestine platforms still taking 38% to 44% of online wagers

A new study commissioned by IBJR says Brazil’s illegal betting market has shrunk relative to 2025, but it is still large enough to matter for licensed operators, PSPs, and acquirers. The practical signal here is simple: regulation is biting, yet payment methods and user behavior still show plenty of leakage into unlicensed channels.

1. The study, “Dimensionamento e combate do mercado ilegal de apostas no Brasil,” was produced by LCA Consultores using data from “Incidência de apostas ilegais no Brasil,” a survey by Instituto Locomotiva commissioned by the Instituto Brasileiro de Jogo Responsável (IBJR).
2. Its estimate for the first half of 2026 is that 38% to 44% of online bets happened on clandestine platforms, down from 41% to 51% in the previous survey published in June 2025. In other words, the illegal share fell, but it did not disappear.
3. The Instituto Locomotiva survey was conducted in May 2026 across Brazil and included 2,291 players. In the three months before the survey, 53% of respondents placed bets on sites that did not require facial recognition, 48% bet on sites with domains ending in something other than .bet.br, 37% deposited via credit card, and 23% used cryptoassets — all payment or onboarding patterns that are not accepted in the regulated market.
4. IBJR executive president Carlos Lima said the figures show regulation and federal enforcement measures are starting to produce concrete results, while warning that new rules applying only to authorized operators could create asymmetries that make the illegal market more attractive to consumers.
5. Brazil’s betting regulation has been in force since 1 January 2025. According to the Ministry of Finance, licensed betting houses contributed R$ 9.95 billion in taxes and legal allocations in the first year of the regulated market, while each platform paid R$ 30 million in licensing fees. Another study, “Panorama do mercado de apostas de quota fixa,” says regulated operators invested approximately R$ 7.5 billion in share capital and generated an estimated 15,5 thousand direct and indirect jobs.

For PSPs and acquiring teams, the useful detail is not just that the illegal share is lower. It is that the survey still captures meaningful use of credit cards, cryptoassets, and non-.bet.br domains outside the regulated stack. That is the kind of behavior pattern compliance teams tend to care about before they care about the press release.