Ending fixed-odds betting would cost Brazil’s state and society nearly R$ 50 billion by 2029

A calculation by BNLData says the revenue lost from banning fixed-odds betting would run to between R$ 48.4 billion and R$ 50.3 billion by December 2029, when the five-year licences expire. For PSPs and operators, the point is simple: if regulated online betting disappears, the demand does not vanish — it moves to the illegal market.

1. The estimate combines two streams cut off by MP nº 1.394/2026, published on 25 September: the contribution on GGR (gross gaming revenue) paid to legal beneficiaries under Law nº 14.790/2023, and the federal taxes paid directly by operators. The calculation does not include ISS collected by municipalities, the Taxa de Fiscalização (R$ 105 million in 2025), or income tax on prizes paid to bettors. With those items added, the loss goes above R$ 50 billion.
2. Using Treasury data obtained by BNLData via the Lei de Acesso à Informação from the Secretaria de Prêmios e Apostas of the Ministry of Finance, the regulated market generated R$ 6.64 billion in 17 months for legal beneficiaries. That money went to the Ministries of Sport and Tourism, Education, the National Public Security Fund, Funapol, and Sisfron, the Army’s border-monitoring system.
3. In just the first half of 2026, public security received R$ 341 million and sport R$ 427 million. Based on the last 12 months, at an average of R$ 413.5 million per month, legal beneficiaries would lose about R$ 5 billion a year. By 2029, the cumulative loss reaches R$ 16.1 billion, or R$ 18 billion if the government’s own approved rates of 14% in 2027 and 15% in 2028 are applied.
4. For the state, the forgone revenue is even larger because operators also paid taxes straight into the federal treasury. In 2025, the Federal Revenue Service collected R$ 9.95 billion in IRPJ, CSLL, PIS/Cofins and social security contributions from the sector. If that level is maintained for the remaining 39 months of the licences, the federal government would give up R$ 32.3 billion. BNLData notes that this is a conservative estimate because 2025 was the first year of the regulated market.
5. The revenue loss lands in a year already defined by heavy spending. Different outlets have used different calculations for the election-year bill: Folha de S.Paulo put it at R$ 290 billion, the Instituição Fiscal Independente at R$ 298.4 billion, and Estadão’s Gastômetro at R$ 405 billion. On top of that came a package for microentrepreneurs announced at the Palácio do Planalto 12 days before the second round, including R$ 12.6 billion in debt relief that could benefit 3.6 million MEIs; the government itself estimated the fiscal impact at R$ 1.57 billion in 2027 and R$ 3.15 billion in 2028.