Brazil betting ban gains public backing as presidential runoff tightens

Brazil’s betting ban has become one of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s most popular campaign talking points ahead of the October 25 runoff, according to the first Quaest poll for the second round. For payment companies watching Brazil’s gambling market, the useful detail is simple: public support is now part of the political setup around the ban, not just a regulatory footnote.

1. The measure was established by Provisional Measure No. 1.394/2026, and 64% of respondents said they know about it and support it, while 17% reject it. In the same survey, the ban ranked among the best-rated proposals in Lula’s agenda.
2. Support for the betting ban was higher than for the end of the six-day workweek with one day off, which drew 61% support among those familiar with the proposal and 20% rejection. Brazil’s government backed that labor measure, and the Senate recently approved it.
3. Quaest puts Flávio Bolsonaro at 46% in voting intention and Lula at 44%, with a two-point margin of error, which leaves the race technically tied. If blank and null votes are excluded, the simulation gives Bolsonaro 51% and Lula 49%. The poll also shows 9% planning to vote blank or null and 1% undecided.
4. For Lula, the biggest growth pool is the 39.1 million people who abstained or voted blank or null in the first round, equal to 24.8% of the eligible electorate. Among that group, 43% say they will vote for Lula in the runoff and 38% for Flávio Bolsonaro, according to Felipe Nunes, director of Quaest and professor at Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV).
5. Among younger voters, the balance of fear has shifted. Now 45% say they fear the return of the Bolsonaro family to power more, and another 45% fear the continuation of Brazil’s government more. In the previous survey, concern about another Lula term dominated. Government approval also edged up from 44% to 45%.