Quaest poll will test whether Brazil’s bets ban changed votes in the Lula vs. Flávio Bolsonaro runoff

A new Quaest survey, due Wednesday at 10:15, will ask Brazilian voters whether the government’s push to ban bets, betting sites, and online casinos affected their runoff choice between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL). For high-risk operators, the point is not just polling trivia: it is a read on whether anti-betting policy is turning into actual voting behavior.

1. The questionnaire asks respondents to pick the most important issue in deciding their vote from a list that includes “the government’s measures to ban bets, betting sites and online casinos,” the increase in Bolsa Família, the end of the 6×1 shift system, and the Banco Master scandal. It then asks whether that issue changed the voter’s choice, reinforced an existing choice, or had no effect.
2. The poll was commissioned by Editora Globo and TV Globo. It includes 2,154 in-person interviews conducted between 17 and 20 October. The margin of error is two percentage points, and the survey is registered with the TSE under number BR-08535/2026.
3. In the previous Quaest round, released on 14 October under registration BR-08729/2026, the ban on bets was the Lula proposal with the highest approval among respondents who knew about it. Among those respondents, 64% approved and 17% disapproved. The end of the 6×1 shift system followed, with 61% approval.
4. That approval did not translate cleanly into voting intention. In the same round, Flávio Bolsonaro led with 46%, versus 44% for Lula. The new question is meant to show whether the anti-betting stance actually moved votes or simply confirmed the choice of voters who were already leaning toward the incumbent.
5. The runoff is scheduled for Sunday, 25 October.