US Citizens Are Still Against Election Bets, Military Wagers, and Government Decision Markets

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll says most Americans do not want prediction markets turning US elections, military actions, or government decisions into something to wager on. That matters for Kalshi, Polymarket, and the rest of the sector, because public acceptance is one thing; broad political appetite for the product is another.

1. The survey, conducted from September 30 to October 5, found opposition across the political spectrum. Roughly 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans were against election betting, which is a neat reminder that this is not just a partisan hobby horse.
2. Public discomfort was even clearer on national security and government actions: 65% of respondents opposed wagers on US military action, and 63% opposed contracts on government decisions. Only 8% supported military-related wagers, while 9% did not mind bets on government announcements.
3. The issue has moved well beyond theoretical debate. Bettors wagered hundreds of millions of dollars on event contracts during the 2024 presidential election, pushing political betting into the spotlight and giving prediction markets more mainstream visibility than they used to have.
4. Since then, platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have expanded beyond election forecasts into political, economic, and sporting events. That growth has brought the usual headaches with it: fears of insider trading, market manipulation, and the misuse of confidential government information.
5. The legal fight is not settled either. Several state gambling regulators have challenged sports-related contracts, arguing that the products are indistinguishable from gambling and should fall under state betting laws. Prediction platforms are pushing back in court, saying the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has sole jurisdiction over the sector.

For high-risk operators and PSPs, the practical point is simple: prediction markets may be growing, but the public still draws a line when politics, military operations, and government decisions enter the picture. Reuters also reported in August that over 150 Polymarket International accounts may have abused insider knowledge on military matters, while Kalshi says it monitors suspicious activity, cooperates with authorities, and has banned accounts including former Republican Representative George Santos, who agreed to pay $35,000 to settle government allegations involving manipulative trading.