South African Bookmakers’ Association calls for ban on prediction markets over integrity, AML and tax concerns

The South African Bookmakers Association (SABA) has asked regulators to ban unlicensed prediction markets, arguing that they create sporting integrity risks, complicate AML (anti-money laundering) controls and divert tax revenue. For payment providers, the key point is simple: if South Africa treats these products as illegal gambling rather than forecasting tools, the processing risk changes fast.

1. SABA said prediction market platforms should face the same regulatory standards as betting exchanges, instead of being allowed to sidestep gambling rules by describing their products as forecasting markets. In the association’s view, these platforms should only be considered after a full review of gambling law, financial market legislation, AML obligations and integrity monitoring frameworks.
2. Until that framework exists, SABA wants prediction markets treated as part of the illegal market. The group’s position was set out in a press release on Monday, which pointed to the “emergence and growth” of unregulated prediction market platforms in South Africa.
3. The release cited a News24 article from 19 July saying that more than R700,000 ($41,750) had been wagered on who would be the next mayor of Johannesburg through Polymarket. That example is doing a lot of work here: once prediction markets start pricing political outcomes, regulators tend to stop thinking of them as harmless information tools.
4. SABA also referenced an April study by the International Federation of Horseracing Authorities (IFHA), which described prediction markets as a “significant and emerging challenge for sports integrity.” The IFHA said predictions can let bettors profit from underperformance, which raises the obvious question for any PSP touching these flows: are you processing speculative trading, or facilitating betting on outcomes that can be manipulated?
5. The association added AML and enforcement concerns, saying prediction markets can generate large volumes of peer-to-peer transactions across multiple jurisdictions. Where offshore operators are involved, South African authorities may have little practical ability to obtain transaction data or enforce compliance obligations. SABA also said South Africa lacks the monitoring capabilities to detect manipulation, creating “a substantial regulatory blind spot.”

SABA had previously objected to the North West Gambling Board’s betting exchange licence, arguing that existing legislation does not “expressly authorise” such licences. That matters because the association sees prediction markets as functionally similar to betting exchanges: the operator does not take the risk itself, it just matches participants. For banks, acquirers and PSPs, that usually means the legal classification is the whole game.