Macquarie Raises 2026 Prediction Market Taker Volume Forecast to $190B

Macquarie now sees prediction market taker volume reaching $190 billion in 2026, up from its earlier $169 billion estimate and far above the $22 billion recorded in 2025. For PSPs and operators watching the high-risk stack, the key point is simple: these markets are still growing fast, but regulation remains the choke point.

1. Macquarie’s revised forecast is focused on taker volume, meaning activity from participants who hit existing order flow rather than provide liquidity. In practice, that puts retail and recreational traders at the center of the growth story, with makers and professional traders playing a smaller role in the estimate.
2. Analyst Chad Beynon said continued expansion across prediction markets drove the higher outlook. Macquarie also expects these platforms to keep adding sportsbook-style features, including customizable same-game parlays, which let users combine multiple outcomes from one sports event into a single bet.
3. The recent numbers are already moving. In the first week of September, taker volume reached $4.3 billion, before the 2026 NFL season began. After the football season kicked off, prediction market taker volume set a new daily record on the opening Sunday of the NFL campaign.
4. Macquarie said September’s strength followed a spike during the World Cup and growth in several yes-or-no contract markets. The firm expects sports-related contracts to account for about 80% of total taker volume in 2026, while economics, politics, cryptocurrency, and entertainment are identified as possible sources of future growth.
5. The catch is regulation. Macquarie said the biggest risk to the industry is adverse court rulings that could restrict sports contracts and hurt long-term growth. The report notes ongoing legal fights in the United States over whether sports-event contracts fall under federal commodities law or state gambling laws, with some disputes already reaching federal appellate courts.