Germany’s licensed sportsbooks expect the 2026 FIFA World Cup to push €300m to €400m of bets to the black market

Deutscher Sportwettenverband (DSWV), which represents licensed online sportsbooks in Germany, says the 2026 FIFA World Cup will expose the gap between the regulated market and unlicensed operators. For PSPs and acquiring teams, the useful bit is simple: a major event can still route a large share of volume outside the licensed stack.

1. DSWV estimates that World Cup wagering in Germany will top €1bn in 2026, but only €600m to €700m of that will be handled by licensed operators. The remainder, it says, will go to unlicensed platforms serving German customers without authorisation from the federal regulator, the GGL.
2. The trade body says the regulated sector could lose €300m to €400m in World Cup bets to those channels. It wants lawmakers to address what it sees as flaws in Germany’s Interstate Treaty on Gambling (GlüStV) before the next federal market review.
3. Mathias Dahms, president of the DSWV, called the tournament “a stress test for the regulated market” and pointed to the pull of matches involving Germany’s national team. He also said official data shows around a third of users rely on illegal services to some extent.
4. On DSWV’s reading, the black market has recently been growing 17 per cent faster than the legal market, according to the GGL. That growth matters because it means regulated operators are not just defending existing share; they are trying to stop major-event traffic from defaulting to offshore or otherwise unlicensed sites.
5. Dahms said Germany’s licensed firms face a 5 per cent tax on stakes, a €1,000 monthly deposit cap and bans on in-play betting. Popular micromarkets such as next goalscorer or penalty outcomes are also prohibited, while unlicensed operators face fewer marketing constraints during high-visibility events like the World Cup.