Brazil’s government is drafting an MP to restrict online betting as election pressure rises

Less than 30 days before the election, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s government is preparing a Medida Provisória (MP) to tighten rules on online betting, with the option to ban online casino games and/or restrict gambling marketing while keeping sports betting in place. For PSPs and acquirers watching Brazil, the point is not just political theater: a fast-track MP can change the operating rules before Congress gets a say.

1. The Casa Civil is leading the draft, according to CNN Brasil, and the text is not yet finalized. Internal discussions reportedly include outright bans on entire segments of the sector, including online casinos and certain modes offered by sports betting operators.
2. There is also an internal split. One wing of the government favors narrower steps focused on illegal-market enforcement and tighter controls on aggressive marketing, while the Ministry of Finance — which led regulation of the sector in recent years — is resisting harsher measures because of the legal consequences a sweeping ban could trigger.
3. The choice of an MP over a bill matters. The government wants immediate effect, and its internal assessment is that a legislative proposal would face resistance in Congress and would not be approved before the election. In practice, that means the timetable is driven by the electoral calendar, not by the policy process.
4. At a meeting at the Palácio do Planalto last week, from which betting industry representatives were excluded, Lula made his personal view unusually explicit: “I, personally, would end bets,” he said, adding that the decision was already “two-thirds” of the way there and that only a signature was missing.
5. The timing tracks the polling pressure. A Quaest survey released on Monday (7) showed Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) both at 41% of voting intentions, with a 2 percentage point margin of error. The previous Quaest poll had already shown a technical tie, with Lula at 42% and Bolsonaro at 41%.