Italy’s online gambling market is becoming a two-horse race as Flutter pushes SNAI toward Lottomatica’s top spot

Italy’s online gambling market is looking increasingly concentrated, with Lottomatica on 30% of online GGR in Q1 and Flutter close behind on 27%, according to Jefferies. For PSPs and acquirers watching high-risk Europe, the interesting part is not the headline gap but whether Flutter can repeat its Sisal playbook with SNAI.

1. Jefferies says Lottomatica remains the Italian online market leader, but Flutter’s combined Sisal and SNAI brands are closing in fast. The latest deep dive puts Lottomatica at 30% of Italian online GGR in Q1, with Flutter already at 27%.
2. The comparison with Sisal is the key reference point. Since Flutter bought Sisal in August 2022, the brand’s online GGR share has risen from around 10% to 13%, with roughly three percentage points gained across online sports betting and iGaming.
3. SNAI is starting from the opposite side of the chart. Jefferies calculates that it has lost around four percentage points of online share over recent years, which is why even a partial recovery under Flutter ownership could be enough to push the group ahead of Lottomatica.
4. On Flutter’s Q2 call, CEO Peter Jackson said Italy was delivering “exceptional levels of growth” across sportsbook and iGaming, with revenue performance outpacing the wider market. He also said the SNAI migration to Flutter’s platform in April caused a “brief period of share loss,” but that performance “recovered strongly in June” as customers adopted a larger product offering, with AMPs increasing 30% in June and strong parlay penetration during the World Cup.
5. The market backdrop is doing some of the heavy lifting too. Jefferies estimates 2025 gambling GGR at €22.6 billion, making Italy Europe’s largest market, while online penetration is still only 28%, versus 61% in the UK. It forecasts Italian online GGR growth of 9% CAGR between 2025 and 2030, and notes that advertising restrictions plus the reduction in online licences from 81 to 52 should favour the largest omnichannel operators with strong retail estates.

For payment providers, Italy is the usual high-risk mix of scale, regulation, and a market structure that increasingly rewards the biggest brands. If Flutter can keep converting platform migration into share gains, the country may stop looking like a fragmented opportunity and start looking like a two-player contest with very little room in the middle.