Five days before the election, Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro court voters beyond their bases

In their campaign spots, both presidential candidates are reaching past the people who already know how they vote. That matters for high-risk PSPs because the same ads also set out policy signals on betting, cash-flow pressure on households, and security themes that tend to shape consumer behavior and regulatory attention.

1. Lula’s ad tells voters they do not need to “do the L,” wear red, or identify with his camp to back him: “You don’t need to ‘do the L,’ you don’t need to wear red, just believe that Brazil can go further,” he says in the electoral broadcast.
2. Flávio Bolsonaro uses the same logic from the other side: “If you also want change, you don’t need to like me, like yourself, like your family, like Brazil and give your vote of confidence,” he says in his spot.
3. The campaign target is not tiny. The so-called “independents” account for 24% to 36% of the electorate in the states, according to Quaest.
4. Lula’s broadcast opened Tuesday’s electoral airtime, which rotates between candidates’ programs. In the piece, he says he will end the 6x1 work schedule without cutting wages, eliminate taxes on the basic food basket, and expand the Pé-de-meia program.
5. The same spot attacks Flávio Bolsonaro and the Bolsonaro government, saying Brazil lived through “unemployment, recession and wages below inflation” under Jair Bolsonaro. It also cites the Estadão editorial “Flávio e a sombra dos milicianos.”
6. Lula’s ad also says he “will end bets.” Last Friday (25), President Lula announced a ban on bets in Brazil. Part of the campaign was narrated by actress Débora Bloch.
7. Flávio Bolsonaro’s spot centers on security. It opens with the slogan “Now the Brasil Real program is about to begin,” then asks whether violence is rising, market prices are higher, feminicides have increased, and criminal factions are out of control.
8. The ad also includes voters saying they had backed Lula in earlier elections but do not plan to repeat that vote this year. Another line in the spot questions the viability of other candidates: “I thought about voting for Caiado, but he doesn’t have the strength to remove Lula from power,” one voter says.
9. In public security, Flávio’s campaign says he plans to create the Brasil Sem Medo program, classify PCC, Comando Vermelho and militias as narcoterrorist organizations, quadruple the penalty for cell phone theft, and lower the age of criminal responsibility. The last two measures would require legislative changes and, therefore, action from Congress.
10. Flávio also appears in a market to talk about food prices and show what, according to the campaign, could be bought with R$ 100.