Fux to rule on Brazil’s betting MP after the election, and the decision could keep today’s licenses alive

The authorizations of 85 betting companies expire this Sunday, October 25, the day of Brazil’s second-round election. With no injunction granted in any of the 19 cases filed so far, the market is now waiting on Supreme Court Justice Luiz Fux, whose ruling could decide whether those licenses remain valid.

1. Brazil’s Provisional Measure No. 1.394/2026, published on September 25, gave licensed betting operators a 30-day window. That clock runs out on Sunday, and the measure banned fixed-odds betting operations and advertising. From today, the 85 authorizations issued by the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting of the Ministry of Finance (SPA/MF) expire, covering 188 brands. The fees paid for those licenses will not be refunded.
2. After the MP was issued, operators and the National Association of Gaming and Lotteries (ANJL) filed 19 writs of mandamus in federal court. They asked for two things: to suspend the effects of the MP and to keep the licenses valid. Fourteen cases were filed at the Federal Regional Court of the 3rd Region (TRF3), which covers São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul. The other five went to the Federal Regional Court of the 1st Region (TRF1), based in Brasília and covering the Federal District plus 12 states in the North, Northeast, and Central-West. ANJL’s case is among the TRF1 filings.
3. So far, no judge has granted an injunction. The only decision that briefly favored the sector came from the 9th Federal Civil Court of São Paulo, which granted Stake a partial injunction allowing it to operate until October 25. The president of TRF3 later suspended that ruling at the request of the Union.
4. With the lower courts not moving, the sector is now focused on the Supreme Federal Court. Fux is rapporteur for the direct actions of unconstitutionality against the MP, assigned to him by prevention. Those include ADI 8024, filed by the National Association for Legal Security in Gaming and Betting (Anseja), ADI 8027, filed by ANJL, and ADI 8028, filed by the National Association of Mayors and Deputy Mayors (ANPV). He also reports on the challenges to Law No. 14.790/2023: ADI 7721, filed by CNC, ADI 7723, filed by Solidariedade, and ADI 7749, filed by the PGR. Abert and football clubs have also asked for the MP to be suspended.
5. Fux gave the Attorney General’s Office (AGU) 72 hours to comment, but decided to wait until after the election to rule on the request. The internal view at the STF is that any decision before the second round could be seen as interference in the electoral process. Whatever happens at the ballot box, Monday, October 26, removes the election as a reason to delay the ruling.

There are three paths from here: Fux can reject the request and leave the MP in force until Congress reviews it; he can suspend the MP in full and bring the regulated market back; or he can take a narrower route. For PSPs, the practical question is not the constitutional theory. It is whether Brazil’s current licenses stay alive long enough for operators to keep processing without having to rebuild their setup midstream.