SOFTSWISS forecast: 65% to 70% of iGaming operators may not survive the next 5 to 10 years

Farkhad Gasimov, Founder & CEO at GNB Agency, says a recent SOFTSWISS brochure points to a market where offshore-first iGaming is giving way to local licenses, heavier AML rules, and higher tax and compliance costs. For operators and PSPs, the practical takeaway is simple: the days of running one model across 5 to 10 markets are getting much more expensive.

1. Gasimov says governments are moving toward full legalization of gambling, though the pace differs by country because of domestic politics, inter-institutional ties, and regulatory policy. In his framing, the old “wild market” era is over, and casinos are increasingly being treated as fully white IT businesses with advertising standards, tax burdens, strict AML requirements, and obligations to both players and the state.
2. He says larger operators are shifting to local licenses, dropping offshore structures, and exiting markets where a local license cannot be obtained. Ivan Montik had previously described this as the end of the Wild West era in iGaming and a move toward more sustainable business models.
3. The operational consequence, Gasimov argues, is a higher barrier to entry. Smaller and mid-sized operators will either shut down or focus on a single market, because maintaining local licenses across 5 to 10 markets will become too expensive. His forecast is that at least 65% to 70% of operators will close over the next 5 to 10 years.
4. His recommendations are blunt: shift marketing spend toward retention, since already expensive traffic is expected to become 2 to 3 times more expensive once licensing is in place; choose one market and build a strong mono-brand around a local license; and develop a real community around the brand, including a recognizable character or face that people can talk about beyond the product itself.
5. He also says operators need to cut non-core projects, staff, and services, and track cash flow down to every penny. In his view, the sector is heading into a serious storm, and only operators with a full business reset, a motivated team, and genuine internal loyalty will make it through.