Brazil’s centrão is waiting for the second round before deciding how far to roll back the betting ban

Brazil’s centrist bloc in Congress is trying to rewrite President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s provisional measure that banned bets, but it is holding off until the second-round election result is clear. For PSPs and operators, the important part is not the politics itself; it is whether Brazil lands on a full ban, a sports-betting carve-out, or something in between.

1. According to Folha de S.Paulo, members of the centrão are working in Congress on changes to the provisional measure issued by Lula that banned bets in Brazil. The plan is to wait for the second-round result and then shape a compromise rather than keeping the current blanket prohibition.
2. The move gained traction with the possibility of a Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) victory in the presidential race. The PL candidate has avoided publicly defending the legalization of sports betting, but campaign remarks have targeted only online casinos, which centrão lawmakers read as room to negotiate continued authorization for sports-related bets.
3. The group pushing for changes is made up mainly of deputies and senators close to betting houses, the CBF (Confederação Brasileira de Futebol), and football clubs. Lawmakers also see room to negotiate with Lula if he is re-elected, citing pressure from clubs and the media over advertising.
4. Several amendments are already on the table. Deputy Júlio Arcoverde (PP-PI), vice president of River-PI, proposed allowing bets on sporting events while keeping the ban on casinos. Deputy Bebeto (PP-RJ) filed four amendments on Monday (5/10), the day after the first round, arguing that betting should remain legal and that the ban should be limited to the illegal market, without Ministry of Finance authorization.
5. Industry representatives also reached out to Senator Rogério Marinho (PL-RN), Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign coordinator, and Deputy Dr Luizinho (PP-RJ), PP leader in the Chamber and coordinator of the Frente Parlamentar do Jogo Responsável, to push for changes to the MP text. The deadline for amendments had originally been before the first round, but Senate president Davi Alcolumbre (União Brasil-AP) extended it to 13 October to separate the debate from the campaign period. The commission that will review the proposal is only expected to be created in November.

On Wednesday (7/10), Flávio Bolsonaro was asked about the issue, attacked Lula, called the president “pai do tigrinho,” and recalled that he voted against the MP that regulated bets. He did not directly say whether he would back the legalization of sports betting. For operators, that silence matters: in Brasília, ambiguity is often the closest thing to a negotiating position.