Brazil’s Lula political team is leading a plan to restrict fixed-odds betting

In Brazil, the push to restrict fixed-odds betting is being shaped inside the Palacio do Planalto’s political offices rather than by the technical regulator in charge of the market. For PSPs, acquirers, and operators, that matters because the people drawing the map are the government’s political operators, not the agency that currently supervises the legal betting market.

1. According to an investigation published by Estadão on Friday, September 18, the draft provisional measure is being driven by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s political core, with only limited participation from officials at the Ministry of Finance’s Secretariat of Prizes and Betting, or SPA/MF (the body that regulates and supervises the legal betting market in Brazil).
2. The main name behind the process is Sidônio Palmeira, head of the Secretariat of Social Communication (Secom) and a former image adviser to Lula. The proposal is also being worked on directly by Miriam Belchior, minister of the Civil House of the Presidency of the Republic; José Guimarães, minister of the Secretariat of Institutional Relations (SRI); and Guilherme Boulos, minister of the General Secretariat of the Presidency.
3. Attorney General of the Union Jorge Messias also took part in meetings when the government was considering a different route: filing a direct action of unconstitutionality (ADI) in court to stop the sector. That option has now lost ground in the discussions and has been ruled out for the time being.
4. The timing being discussed is a provisional measure issued in the weeks leading up to the first round of the election. Sources cited by Estadão say some government figures see this as a way to publicly signal protection of household income. The same report says the measure could also carry electoral value, especially among evangelical voters, although a survey by More in Common Brazil and Ipsos-Ipec questioned that assumption and found that betting policy would not be a decisive voting factor.
5. This is not the first sign that the government may move in this direction. UOL reported the idea on Wednesday, September 16, saying the package could even include a ban on online casinos and sports betting. A day later, SBT reported that Lula plans to review the proposals for the sector personally after returning from the United Nations General Assembly.

For high-risk payments players, the important detail is not just whether Brazil tightens the rules, but who is writing them. When the political team is in the lead and the technical regulator is off to the side, you get a process that can move fast, carry electoral logic, and leave less room for the usual industry consultation.