Brazil’s Lula is weighing a full ban on online casino play, while sports betting faces tighter ad rules

Brazilian betting firms are watching a familiar political script play out: the regulated market exists, the tax receipts are real, and the president is now talking about drawing a much harder line on gambling. For PSPs and acquirers, the useful bit is simple: the real pressure appears to be on online casino activity, with sports betting more likely to face heavier advertising restrictions than a full ban.

1. Local media cited by SBC Noticias Brasil say President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is preparing two measures aimed at online gaming: a complete ban on online casino activity and an electoral programme in which he would meet Brazilians affected by problem gambling ahead of the October elections.
2. A ban on sports betting was also considered, but Lula and his policymakers have reportedly decided not to include it. The obvious reason is fiscal: the government still wants to keep some tax revenue flowing from betting activity.
3. What does seem likely is tighter advertising rules for sports betting. Brazil has seen a sharp rise in betting ads on television, especially during sports broadcasts, and that has become part of the political backlash around the market.
4. The regulatory setup has already moved once. Brazil’s Law No. 14,790 approved the regulated market in December 2025, but Lula has since taken a more hostile line. His government also approved higher tax rates, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) tax set to rise from 12% to 18% by 2028.
5. Politics is doing what politics does: the betting issue is now in the middle of the October elections. Lula’s main opponent is Liberal Party leader Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who has also been considering whether to include an online gambling ban.

There is one number that explains why a full ban is not the easy answer: Finance Minister Dario Durigan pointed to around R$7.3bn (£1bn) in taxes collected from regulated betting in H1 2026. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance’s Secretariat of Prizes and Bets (SPA) has been stepping up action against illegal gambling, which tells you where the government is willing to keep some pressure without killing the licensed market outright.