Lula’s victory leaves Brazil’s betting market in legal limbo

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s election win does not automatically change the legal effect of Brazil’s online betting restriction. For operators and PSPs, the real question is now whether the measure survives in Congress, gets narrowed, or is suspended by the STF (Supreme Federal Court).

1. The restriction was published on September 25 as a provisional measure (MP) and remains in force while it stays within its validity period, unless a court suspends it. In practice, the political outcome matters, but it does not override the current legal status on its own.
2. The next steps are legislative and judicial. Congress can approve the text, amend its scope, or reject it. If the vote is not concluded within the constitutional deadline, the MP can also lapse. At the same time, the sector is challenging the ban before the STF.
3. During a Vixio webinar, chief analyst James Kilsby outlined four possible outcomes for Brazil: full approval of the ban; the provisional measure expiring; a regime where online casinos remain banned but sports betting is preserved; or a redrafting of the rules to allow a narrower market. These are scenarios under discussion, not predictions that platforms will reopen.
4. Lula has kept a hard line against betting platforms. When announcing the restrictive measure, he said: “O extirpamos el tumor o este tumor nos va a matar” (“Either we remove the tumor or it will kill us”). He also compared the growth of digital betting with the rise in crack consumption, saying: “Me recordó un poco al comienzo del crack. Con las apuestas está pasando exactamente lo mismo, en un grado mucho mayor, porque es digital” (“It reminded me a bit of the beginning of crack. With betting, the exact same thing is happening, to a much greater degree, because it is digital”).
5. On October 22, Lula repeated that position and said the platforms would not operate in Brazil again: “Quien quiera ganar dinero, que trabaje” (“Whoever wants to make money should work”). That is a political signal, not a substitute for congressional action or a ruling from the STF.

The legal fight now sits on two tracks: the MP’s passage through the legislature and the constitutional challenges filed by sector groups. Luiz Fux is the rapporteur for the Direct Actions of Unconstitutionality (ADIs) filed against MP 1.394/2026, including petitions from the Associação Nacional de Jogos e Loterias (ANJL) and the Instituto Brasileiro de Jogo Responsable (IBJR).