PT insiders say Brazil’s online betting ban hurt Lula in the first round

Brazil’s ruling party is treating the government’s pre–first-round move to ban online betting as a campaign mistake that backfired politically and did not deliver the intended result. For high-risk payments players, the point is straightforward: when a government targets betting in the middle of an election, policy can move faster than the commercial and tax consequences.

1. According to Estadão, PT leaders blame Sidônio Palmeira, Brazil’s Secretary of Social Communication, for pushing Lula to eliminate all online bets in the country. PT chairman and campaign coordinator Edinho Silva, along with the Ministry of Finance, opposed the move, arguing that a sweeping and rushed ban would hurt federal tax revenue and push part of the electorate toward the opposition. The original proposal had reportedly focused only on online casinos such as Jogo do Tigrinho. Palmeira did not comment when asked by the paper.
2. O Globo had already reported that Lula’s own campaign saw the measure as damaging to Sunday’s result. On Monday, reports from Estadão, Folha de S.Paulo, O Globo and CNN Brasil all pointed in the same direction: the betting ban is now being treated internally as one of the errors that helped Senator Flávio Bolsonaro reach the second round ahead of Lula.
3. Folha says Edinho Silva and Sidônio Palmeira had a heated argument over the issue and went at least a week without meeting in the final stretch of the campaign. CNN Brasil reported that the PT chief favored a gradual path through Congress, and that the announcement of the end of bets ended up sharing the spotlight with the news of Sidônio’s victory over Edinho inside the campaign.
4. The criticism was not limited to the PT. In an interview with Folha, João Camargo, chairman of the board of Esfera Brasil, said the way the government handled the ban was “horrible” and attacked the suspension of betting during the final phase of championships. His point was that voters could see the presidential pen being used for electioneering.
5. The day after the first round, Lula gathered campaign coordinators and allies and, according to Estadão, ordered them to “change everything” to move closer to young voters, women and the center. The PT is now discussing a partnership with ad man Otávio Antunes, who created the “taxação BBB” campaign targeting billionaires, banks and bets.

The betting backlash was not only internal. In June, the collective 342 Artes, led by producer Paula Lavigne, launched the “Block no Tigrinho” campaign. On 1 September, Lavigne took part in a meeting at the Palácio do Planalto convened by Lula to discuss the impact of betting, with Janja da Silva among the organizers. At that meeting, Lavigne asked the president to end “this horror” in Brazil.