Lula’s possible betting ban in Brazil could cost operators R$ 2.5 billion in licence fees

Brazil’s federal government is weighing what to do with R$ 2.5 billion already paid by betting companies if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva moves to ban online bets in the country. For PSPs, acquirers, and banks, the real issue is not just the ban itself, but whether Brasília treats those payments as refundable, rebalanced, or effectively stranded.

1. According to reporting by Fabio Graner of Globo Online, government interlocutors are looking at two main routes to limit legal uncertainty. In a full ban, the idea would be to return the amounts paid to companies in full. In a partial ban focused on online casinos such as jogo do tigrinho, the government would discuss an economic and financial rebalancing of the contracts, either by extending the licence period or refunding part of the money already paid.
2. The numbers are not small. Data from Brazil’s Ministry of Finance show that 85 authorisations were granted, each costing R$ 30 million. Since regulation took effect in 2025, companies have paid a total of R$ 2.5 billion in outorgas.
3. The fiscal impact goes well beyond licence fees. A Ministry of Finance report says the bets sector generated R$ 9.95 billion in federal tax revenue in 2025, plus R$ 95.5 million in inspection fees. In the same year, about R$ 4.5 billion from gross gaming revenue (GGR) was directed to public policies in social security, sport, education, and consumer protection, as required by law.
4. Even officials inside the government who still see room for intermediate regulatory measures say the steps already taken — including banning the use of credit cards for betting and cracking down on illegal operators — have not solved the problem. The estimated flow for legal bets still reaches R$ 60 billion, and that volume has prompted complaints from sectors including banks and retailers.
5. Inside the government, the view is that Lula is moving closer to a more radical solution. He already raised the issue in his speech at the United Nations General Assembly. Congress is the other variable: the sector’s allied caucus is large, and while it stays relatively quiet in public, it has strong ability to coordinate among lawmakers. The government also believes female and evangelical audiences would support a ban.

For high-risk payments players, Brazil’s question is straightforward on paper and messy in practice: if the state shuts the market or narrows it sharply, the knock-on effect is not only merchant attrition, but also disputes over licence economics, settlement exposure, and the durability of the whole regulatory framework.