Brazil’s online betting market is still set for double-digit growth, says Bradesco BBI

Bradesco BBI expects Brazil’s online sports betting market to keep growing in double digits in the coming years, even after an expected slowdown in 2026. For PSPs and acquirers, the takeaway is simple: the market is already large, still formalizing, and not close to saturation.

1. The bank’s latest read, published by Brazil Journal, says Brazil’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) rose 33% in 2025 to US$ 17 billion, helped by the liberalization of the online betting market. Before regulation, Bradesco had estimated Brazilian GGR at US$ 13 billion.
2. For 2026, Bradesco BBI is modeling a more moderate 11% increase, which would take GGR to about US$ 20 billion. Even with that slowdown, the bank still sees room for double-digit growth in the years after 2026.
3. The bank’s case rests on three drivers: Brazil’s user base is still relatively small versus the rest of Latin America; regulation that took effect at the start of 2025 has pushed more activity into the formal market and increased trust; and Brazil’s high digital adoption gives the sector a solid base to keep scaling. Only 22% of Brazilian adults use betting platforms, which is below more mature markets.
4. That penetration point matters more than the usual hand-waving. With just over one in five adults betting, Bradesco BBI argues there is still structural room for growth before any real saturation discussion starts. For payment providers, that usually means the market is expanding on user acquisition, not just spend per user.
5. At the same time, the report notes the growing pressure on household budgets. Lojas Renner, Magazine Luiza, Casas Bahia, Assaí, GPA, Arcos Dorados and SmartFit have all cited betting growth as one reason for weaker results, arguing that spending on bets is reducing disposable income for lower-income consumers. Bradesco BBI, though, treats betting-related debt as a marginal portfolio and behavioral risk rather than a macroeconomic problem.

The bank also flags a number that matters if you are watching consumer resilience: 82% of Brazilian families carry some kind of debt, and almost 30% of household budgets go toward debt payments. If that burden rises further, the first place you would expect to see it is discretionary spend — including betting deposits.