Brazil’s presidential candidates back a ban on sports betting, but none explains the R$ 12.2 billion fiscal hole

Four major presidential candidates in Brazil support a total ban on sports betting platforms, yet none of them says how the state would replace the R$ 12.2 billion in tax revenue the sector generated in 2025. For PSPs, acquirers, and banks, that is the part that matters: regulation here is no longer just about licensing and ad rules, but about whether the market stays open at all.

1. According to a Folha de S.Paulo report published on Wednesday (9/9), four candidates have proposed banning bets outright: Renan Santos (Missão), PSTU, PCB, and UP. Santos’ campaign says it supports a total prohibition but gives no plan for replacing the R$ 12.2 billion that betting companies paid into public coffers in taxes during the first year of the regulated market.
2. PSTU and PCB go further and also support expropriation of company assets. UP describes the activity as a crime against the popular economy. In other words: this is not just a debate about tighter compliance or more advertising rules, but about whether the sector’s infrastructure could be unwound altogether.
3. Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) does not call for a full ban, but his platform would tighten the rules and prohibit betting ads in mass media and social networks. He also frames overindebtedness as a public health issue. In a statement, Caiado said he had acted against legalization when he was a senator, although the historical record shows that Law No. 13.756, of 2018, which legalized fixed-odds betting, was approved with support from all parties, including the then-Democrats, of which Caiado was one of the leaders.
4. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s campaign, which is seeking reelection, says it supports stronger controls rather than prohibition. The plan keeps spending controls in place, monitors household debt, and tightens credit rules to prevent gambling-related debt. It also calls for expanded mental health support for compulsive gamblers through SUS, which the Ministry of Health says has capacity for 100,000 people.
5. On 1/9, Lula met with anti-gambling campaign representatives and said he would take “a more drastic decision” on betting platforms. He added, “I personally would get rid of bets, I think it’s a social evil,” while also saying he needed to hear all sides. Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), meanwhile, voted for betting regulation when he was a senator and focuses his proposal on fighting overindebtedness, including a ban on using social program funds for betting, a measure that has already been implemented through beneficiary blocking.

One more detail worth filing away if you move money in or out of Brazil: More in Common/Ipsos-Ipec found that most Brazilians do not change their vote because of positions on betting. That means the political risk can rise even if it is not yet a decisive campaign issue for voters.