IBGE data undercut Abras claim linking food spending to Brazil’s legal betting ban, ANJL says

Brazil’s supermarket lobby Abras has been challenged by the National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL), which says official statistics do not support the idea that the end of legalized betting increased food consumption. For high-risk operators, the point is less about groceries than about how regulators and industry groups frame the market ahead of Brazil’s Supreme Court debate.

1. The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) said the October IPCA-15 (Extended National Consumer Price Index 15), covering September 16 to October 14, came in at 0.38%, down from 0.7% in the previous month. ANJL argues that this makes Abras’ narrative harder to sustain, especially because the period includes the last days of the betting market’s validity and the first two weeks after it ended.
2. IBGE also reported that the food and beverage group rose 0.88%, but several items in the basic basket fell in price. Among them: carrots were down 10.67%, fruit fell 1.37%, and ground coffee — the item Abras singled out — was 1.16% cheaper. Beans, milk and meat also posted price drops.
3. ANJL says another relevant factor is the 15% adjustment to Bolsa Família, announced in September by the federal government and effective from October. In its view, that income boost matters when reading consumer behavior, especially in a country where, according to a Quiddity survey in partnership with Ágora, 58% of the population reaches the end of the month with no money left or spends more than they earn.
4. The association also points to two major holidays in September and October. Scanntech Brasil, a market intelligence platform, said these dates tend to increase collective consumption and drive retail activity, especially in supermarkets.
5. Plínio Lemos Jorge, president of ANJL, said the macroeconomic data show “it makes no sense” to link the end of legalized betting in Brazil with higher consumption of certain foods. He added that millions of bettors are still playing, but on more than 30,000 illegal websites available and accessible in Brazil.

The timing matters. Abras’ statement came one week before a public hearing at Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) on November 3 to discuss the future of the betting market, and ANJL is treating the supermarket group’s claim as part of that broader fight over how the sector is described in public.