IBJR questions ABRAS data on betting bans, says Brazil’s regulated market posted about R$ 37 billion in GGR in 2025

The Instituto Brasileiro de Jogo Responsável (IBJR) says the ABRAS figures do not prove that a betting ban pushed households to buy more food. For anyone watching Brazil’s payments flow, the key issue is simple: a drop in PIX transfers does not tell you whether money moved to supermarkets, stayed in regulated betting, or disappeared into unlicensed platforms.

1. IBJR says the ABRAS data need a proper baseline before anyone ties October retail performance to the betting prohibition. In ABRAS/NIQ weekly monitoring, nominal food retail sales rose 7.9% between 14 and 20 September, before the provisional measure, and 7.4% between 5 and 11 October, compared with the same weeks of 2025.
2. The institute also points out that ABRAS itself linked the August increase in consumption to stronger employment and income, plus lower food prices, with a real rise of 2.71% in households during the year. Those factors predate the prohibition, so IBJR says they should not be folded into the effect of the betting measure.
3. On payments, IBJR says a decline in PIX transfers does not show where household money went. The number of transfers does not reveal how much was no longer spent on betting, where that money was redirected, or whether betting activity simply moved to clandestine platforms.
4. IBJR also challenges the numbers circulating in the debate, including R$ 143 billion that bets supposedly pulled out of commerce and R$ 62.5 billion from household income. According to the Ministry of Finance, the regulated market recorded about R$ 37 billion in GGR in 2025. GGR, or gross gaming revenue, is the total wagered minus prizes paid out — in other words, the net spend by players at authorised operators.
5. For scale, IBJR says household consumption in 2025 was about R$ 8.1 trillion, according to IBGE. On that basis, the regulated market’s R$ 37 billion in GGR equals about 0.46% of household consumption. IBJR says the R$ 62.5 billion estimate is based on PIX transfers without separating authorised operators from clandestine platforms, while the R$ 143 billion figure comes from an estimate of retail sales allegedly foregone. Neither number, it says, is the actual spend of regulated-market bettors.

For PSPs, acquirers, and banks active in Brazil, the message is less about the headline and more about methodology. If a policy debate is going to touch payments, the question is not just how much volume moved, but which rails, which operators, and which market segment the data actually covers.