Brazil Central Bank data shows Pix transaction count was already falling before betting ban

Public data from Brazil’s Banco Central and an analysis by ANJL consultants suggest the reported “10% drop” in Pix activity should be treated carefully. For PSPs and payment teams in high-risk verticals, the key point is simple: the timing of the decline does not line up neatly with the September 25 measure that banned the regulated fixed-odds betting market.

1. According to public data from the Banco Central, the decline in Pix transactions across Brazil had already started before the announcement of the Provisional Measure on September 25. Between September 22 and 24, transaction volume was already about 7% to 12% below the reference level, and the amount moved was down even more, by 14% to 27%.
2. The Banco Central said transactions fell 10% over the three days after the measure, September 26, 27 and 28, compared with the average for the same days in the previous four weeks. That figure is based on operations settled in the Sistema de Pagamentos Instantâneos (SPI), Brazil’s instant payments system.
3. ANJL argues that this comparison is not the cleanest way to read Pix behavior because transaction volumes vary depending on where the calendar sits in the month. Near month-end, people are often tighter on cash, and that can affect payment activity, especially when Pix is used as an immediate payment method.
4. For that reason, ANJL used a like-for-like comparison: the fourth Saturday of August and the following Sunday and Monday versus the fourth Saturday of September and the following Sunday and Monday. In that comparison, Pix transactions fell from 627.6 million to 608.6 million, a drop of 3.0%.
5. At the same time, the total amount moved went the other way. It rose 3.7%, from R$ 177.1 billion to R$ 183.7 billion. ANJL president Plínio Lemos Jorge said the numbers show fewer transactions, but not less money moving through the system, and argued that the 10% headline may reflect the comparison method rather than a clean effect from the betting restriction.

For high-risk operators, the useful takeaway is methodological: if you are watching payment data for signs of merchant suppression, regulatory pressure, or customer behavior shifts, the reference window matters as much as the headline percentage. Pix, at least in this dataset, did not suddenly change direction on September 25.